This entry examines the Bukhari narration in which the Prophet, at Tabuk, told 'Auf ibn Malik to count six signs before the Hour: his own death, the conquest of Jerusalem, a devastating plague, a flood of wealth, a strife sparing no Arab house, and a betrayed truce with the Byzantines. Five are argued to have occurred within decades; the sixth is regarded as unfulfilled, and the entry says so plainly.
The source text
“Narrated 'Auf bin Malik: I went to the Prophet during the Ghazwa of Tabuk while he was sitting in a leather tent. He said, 'Count six signs that indicate the approach of the Hour: my death, the conquest of Jerusalem, a plague that will afflict you (and kill you in great numbers) as the plague that afflicts sheep, the increase of wealth to such an extent that even if one is given one hundred Dinars, he will not be satisfied; then an affliction which no Arab house will escape, and then a truce between you and Bani Al-Asfar (i.e. the Byzantines) who will betray you and attack you under eighty flags. Under each flag will be twelve thousand soldiers.'”
Sahih al-Bukhari 3176 · Grading: sahih (Bukhari-Muslim by definition)
What was understood in the seventh century
The narration (Sahih al-Bukhari 3176) situates the statement at the Tabuk expedition of 630 CE, with the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) speaking from a leather tent on campaign. At that moment Jerusalem was firmly Byzantine, the Muslim polity had never experienced a mass epidemic, and Arabia was poor. Each named development lay outside the community's experience.
The list's structure matters for how it is assessed: it mixes one certainty (the speaker's eventual death), several concrete events (a named city's conquest, a plague likened to the murrain of sheep), one social trend (unsatisfying abundance), one civil catastrophe, and one closing scenario with hard numbers — eighty banners of twelve thousand men each. Assessing the entry therefore means assessing each element on its own terms rather than the list as an undifferentiated whole.
The fulfillment record
The fulfillments historically argued run in sequence. The Prophet died in 632 CE, within two years of the Tabuk statement. Jerusalem surrendered to the caliph 'Umar in 637/638. The plague of 'Amwas (Emmaus, in Palestine) struck in 638–639, killing on standard estimates some 20,000–25,000, including the commander Abu 'Ubayda and other senior companions; commentators noted the aptness of the comparison to qu'as, the murrain of sheep, and the episode is treated in the scholarship cited below. Wealth flooded in with the conquests, with proverbial surplus reported under 'Umar ibn 'Abd al-'Aziz (717–720). The strife sparing no Arab household is identified with the assassination of 'Uthman in 656 and the civil wars that followed, which divided families and garrison towns across the new empire.
The sixth sign — a truce with the "Banu al-Asfar" followed by betrayal and an invasion under eighty banners — is regarded by commentators as not yet fulfilled. It is framed in the text as pre-Hour, without a near-term horizon, and any honest presentation of this entry must flag it as open.
Considerations and counterpoints
Critics argue that the first five signs — a leader's death, a conquest, an epidemic, prosperity, and civil strife — are generic features of any rapidly expanding polity's first decades, and that since the report was recorded after these events, the mapping is post hoc. They add, pointedly, that the single concretely numerical prediction in the list is precisely the one that remains unfulfilled fourteen centuries on. Defenders reply that the specificity exceeds generic forecasting: Jerusalem is named while Byzantium still held it, and the plague is described as striking the Muslims themselves in sheep-murrain fashion — an unflattering thing to invent — which is what 'Amwas did. The entry is tiered cautiously because several signs are broad categories and the composite includes an open element.
Credibility rating: Tier 2 · Interpretive — The source is sahih and the first five items map onto dated seventh-century events, but several signs are broad categories and the composite includes one unfulfilled element, keeping the item interpretation-dependent.